Tagged: 夜上海论坛ZT


Global recession risk spikes as world powers down, markets slump

first_imgInvestors are sounding the alarm that policy makers aren’t doing enough, with a deepening rout in global stocks and strains in credit markets compounding the concern over the economic outlook. Stocks were primed for more heavy losses in Asia on Friday after the worst Wall Street session since 1987.The virus “has disrupted the global economy and has quickly morphed into a dislocation in financial markets too,” Morgan Stanley economists led by Chetan Ahya said in a report to clients in which they warned of a “rising risk” of a full-blown global recession.“The need of the hour is a quick, sizeable response from public health, monetary and fiscal authorities,” they said.Read also: Time-out: IDX halts trading as shares plunge 5% Dashed are the hopes from just a few weeks ago that the world economy would track a V-shaped trajectory — a sharp first-quarter slump in growth followed by a second-quarter rebound. Now, the biggest economic shock since the 2008 financial crisis is raising the risk of a worldwide recession, with the debate shifting to how long and deep the slump will be.China is already on course for what could be its first quarterly contraction in decades. In the US, a Bloomberg Economics model suggests a 53 percent chance that the 11-year expansion will end within a year. The economies of Japan, Germany, France and Italy were already shrinking or stalled before the virus outbreak, and the UK is wobbling amid Brexit uncertainty.As the virus spreads, the threat grows of a phenomenon economists refer to as a feedback loop — a vicious cycle in which a country that starts to recover domestically then suffers diminished demand from abroad as other nations succumb, prolonging the downturn.At Pacific Investment Management Co., global chief economic adviser Joachim Fels says the US and Europe face the “distinct possibility” of a recession. Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a paid contributor to Bloomberg News, says the coronavirus may prove to be the most serious crisis of the century so far and puts the odds of a US recession at 80 percent.Traditionally more conservative in calling a recession, Wall Street economists are also downgrading their forecasts. Those at Bank of America Corp. on Wednesday cut their global growth forecast for 2020 from 2.8 percent to 2.2 percent. That’s “in spitting range of a typical global recession” and well below the world’s long-term trend of 3.5 percent, they said.Read also: Global stocks suffer historic rout, shrugging of central bank stepsCounterparts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. told clients this week that the risk of a global recession “has risen materially.” To revive their confidence, they said they need to see a fading of the virus, a stronger and more creative response by economic policy makers, and for firms and banks not to slash jobs or lending.They also argued that the tumble in the cost of oil may not necessarily boost growth as much as historically because consumers will pocket the windfall from cheaper fuel prices.Policy makers are already struggling to keep up, adding to concern that falling demand won’t be cushioned enough by stimulus.The Federal Reserve’s emergency interest rate cut of March 3 failed to buoy investor confidence, adding to pressure on its officials to ease monetary policy and perhaps even slash rates to zero when they reconvene next week if not sooner. There are also calls for it to follow the Bank of England in channeling assistance to parts of the economy in most need.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde got her chance to act on Thursday after telling regional leaders earlier in the week that their economy risked a shock that echoed the crisis of the last decade if they didn’t urgently. The ECB announced what it called a “ comprehensive” package that included more quantitative easing and tools to increase liquidity, but disappointed investor calls for interest rates to be cut.The ECB already has negative rates so there’s little room to reduce them, a problem for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda too.We’re all Japan now as virus drives low-rates world toward zeroThat leaves fiscal policy, which should be more potent than monetary policy because it can be targeted and delivered in size. But governments are again proving sluggish in getting ahead of the crisis with the majority waiting for their nations to become infected before shifting and then only slowly.While more governments are rolling out stimulus packages worldwide and are offering more than US$130 billion of virus-relief steps, Trump’s administration has been slow crafting a plan after initially questioning the need for one.German Chancellor Angela Merkel promised to do “whatever is necessary” on Wednesday. While the rhetoric has yet to be matched by a fiscal push in Europe’s largest economy, her administration is prepared to abandon its long-standing balanced-budget policy to help finance steps to contain the virus fallout.Read also: Europe grinds to halt as ECB is criticized for too little actionMuch of the economic data have yet to bear out the magnitude of the pain to the global economy. In some ways, though, the virus outbreak’s impact is more worrisome than even the financial crisis, given that it’s hitting a multitude of consumer and business channels and has crushed prospects for a full recovery in some sectors, said Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Bank in Singapore.“This is the opposite transition from the crisis propagation perspective — now we have the services sector basically coming to a standstill worldwide” while the financial system still is relatively healthy, said Baig, a former economist at the International Monetary Fund.While the crisis of 2008-09 was a “classic financial crisis,” this time, “it’s not about fixing banks or putting capital in there — it’s about saying the pandemic has ended. That’s what makes it very uncertain” as the virus has proved so hard to control, he said.Topics : A pandemic-driven global recession is becoming more likely by the day as the flow of goods, services and people face ever-increasing restrictions and financial markets slump.In just the past day or so, President Donald Trump curbed travel to the US from Europe, Italy’s government ordered almost every shop to close, India suspended most visas and Ireland partially shut down. Twitter Inc. joined companies telling employees to work at home and the National Basketball Association suspended its season.While such announcements are aimed at containing the coronavirus, each quarantined city, canceled flight, scrapped sporting event and scuppered conference will hammer demand this quarter and likely longer. An initial consumer rush to stock up on supplies may be followed by months of cautious restraint.last_img read more


Beat writer Q&A: Brian Batko of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette breaks down the Syracuse-Pittsburgh game

first_img Facebook Twitter Google+ After two games away from the Carrier Dome, Syracuse (2-3, 0-1 Atlantic Coast) is back for its homecoming weekend and will face Pittsburgh (2-3, 0-1) at 12:30 p.m. Saturday. The Orange is coming off a 33-25 loss to N.C. State while the Panthers recently snapped a three-game losing streak by beating Rice, 42-10.Pittsburgh beat writer Brian Batko of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette answered five questions from The Daily Orange previewing the upcoming matchup.The Daily Orange: All kinds of offensive records were broken the last time these two teams matched up. Is that something the team has talked about going into this year’s game?Brian Batko: Yes and no. (Pitt head coach) Pat Narduzzi admitted to watching the tape “15 times” since the end of last season, simply to try to fix some of the defensive trouble spots in that game. But also this week, some players and assistants have given the cliched “that’s in the past, and we’re just looking forward to this year” line or “we’re no more excited for this game than any other,” more or less. And from the point of view of Pitt’s defense, not that many key contributors in 2017 even played in that game, what with injuries and graduation; Pitt’s top five tacklers from that one are no longer on the team. Those who did humor us by thinking back to that craziness kept mentioning that it was like a basketball game and that they’d never been part of such a high-scoring affair on a football field. To a man, no one wants to see that again.The D.O.: The Panthers are scoring significantly less than they did last year. Obviously some key players (James Conner, Nathan Peterman) are gone, but what else is limiting Pitt’s offense so far this season?AdvertisementThis is placeholder textB.B.: It’s not just James Conner and Nathan Peterman, but Pitt also lost its top two offensive linemen and tight end Scott Orndoff. Max Browne struggled quite a bit in his first three games before finally getting on track last week against lowly Rice. If that’s a sign of things to come in terms of him being more comfortable and more willing to take shots downfield, then Pitt’s offense can probably trend upward. Elsewhere, the ground game has been stuck in neutral, and while it had been easy to call that a symptom of the passing struggles, what’s the excuse for failing to run against Rice? Whether it’s run-blocking or pass-protection, the offensive line has been somewhere between a moderate and massive disappointment, especially when you consider it’s a unit with three returning starters and plenty of experience.The D.O.: Pitt gave up 61 points last year to the Orange without starting QB Eric Dungey playing. What is the plan to slow down the Orange offense this time?B.B.: First off, rush the passer and cause problems for Eric Dungey in the backfield, but that’s easier said than done. Pitt has just six sacks this season, all by different players. An inexperienced defensive line has been mostly invisible for long periods at a time. So when it comes to coverage, cornerbacks Avonte Maddox and Dane Jackson – both of whom have been a pleasant surprise – must continue to excel against the likes of Steve Ishmael. Most likely, it’ll be the 5-foot-9 Maddox on Ishmael the majority of the game. On the other side of the field, Jackson has been more of a playmaker, with two interceptions in the past four games. Speaking of takeaways, those would be a major boost to help Pitt’s defense get off the field in a particularly difficult matchup, as well. For what it’s worth, Pitt recovered four fumbles at Georgia Tech and picked off three passes last week against Rice.The D.O.: Who is Pitt’s key player in this game? Furthermore, is there a player who doesn’t get as much of the spotlight that fans should know about?B.B.: It’s probably the aforementioned Maddox, who’s small but feisty. He’s a three-year full-time starter, a four-year contributor who never redshirted and a team captain generally considered the vocal leader of the defense, if not the entire team. That said, he’s certainly been exposed by talented receivers, and Ishmael will be the next test for him to prove himself a reliable lockdown guy in Narduzzi’s system, which often puts its corners on an island. One player to watch for on offense is a name that should be familiar to Syracuse fans: redshirt sophomore tight end Chris Clark, the one-time Orange commit who overcame a couple early-season drops to catch his first career touchdown last week. If he and Browne form a legitimate rapport, that’ll be a QB-TE connection of two former five-star prospects who transferred to Pitt.The D.O.: How do you think the game turns out on Saturday and who wins?B.B.: Another back-and-forth air show is probably the most logical prediction here. For as much as Pitt’s secondary has seemingly improved, it was still torched just three weeks ago by an up-tempo team in Oklahoma State. Now granted, Oklahoma State’s personnel is probably more talented than Syracuse’s, but Ishmael and Ervin Philips both look mighty impressive this season. On the other side of the ball, whether Pitt’s passing game continues to click or Syracuse’s run defense continues to struggle, the Panthers should be able to put up points, too. Just not enough. Syracuse will win by a field goal. Comments Published on October 5, 2017 at 7:32 pm Contact Tomer: [email protected] | @tomer_langerlast_img read more


Canceled Lakers-Clippers game rescheduled for April 9

first_imgMirjam Swanson contributed to this story. The Clippers will also play three games in four nights, with an April 4 home game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and an April 7 game at the Utah Jazz for a back-to-back. The game against the Bulls, on April 6, is typically an off-night for the NBA with the NCAA men’s national championship game on air.The Lakers and Clippers are the first- and third-place teams in the Western Conference, respectively. By April, both should be cycling down and resting stars in preparation for playoffs, taking some juice out of the fourth and final matchup between the hallway rivals who share the same building. The Clippers are currently 0-2 in the series.Vogel acknowledged as much, saying the team’s No. 1 priority in the closing week of the season would be to maintain their health.“We may stagger some of the guys that play, maybe some guys won’t be playing all three games, but we’ll have those conversations as we approach those games,” he said. “See what the standings look like, all those types of things. But that late in the season? The No. 1 priority is going to be healthy and fresh.”The game cancelation was an extraordinary situation for the NBA. Commissioner Adam Silver said last week in Chicago that the league and the Clippers tried to be deferential to the Lakers in handling Bryant’s death, which left the organization reeling with grief. Sharing a building was a key piece of logistics that made the cancellation possible. Newsroom GuidelinesNews TipsContact UsReport an Errorcenter_img After electing to cancel the Jan. 28 game between the Lakers and Clippers in the aftermath of Kobe Bryant’s death, the NBA has now rescheduled four games total in April to put Lakers-Clippers back on the calendar.The game will be played at Staples Center on April 9, the last of three straight games the Lakers will play at home. The typical crunch of Staples Center scheduling for the week has been affected, causing three other games to be played on different nights: the Chicago Bulls will play the Clippers on April 6 (originally April 8); the Golden State Warriors will play the Lakers on April 7 (originally April 9); and the Bulls will play the Lakers on April 8 (originally April 7).The league typically takes pains to prevent teams from playing three games in as many nights, but it is not unprecedented: New Orleans is the last team that played such a stretch, from March 20 to 22 during the 2017-2018 season because of a postponed game (the last of which was against the Lakers).Lakers coach Frank Vogel said he had played such a stretch before in Indiana, when a game was snowed out and the rescheduling forced a game three days in a row. The Pacers won all three games, he said.last_img read more